Orion publishes future energy scenarios
The Orion Group has released a Future Energy Scenarios report outlining four possible futures for central Waitaha Canterbury.
We are facing a massively different energy environment in the decades ahead, driven by climate change, new technology and the increasing demand for electricity. The scenarios were formulated to describe four plausible future states for the energy sector in the year 2050 and the pathways for how we will reach those futures.
From understanding the four scenarios we’ve developed a fifth ‘Central’ scenario which is intended to be our best view of demand to 2035 and meets specific requirements for our asset management planning.
“It’s critical we understand the opportunities and challenges of the energy transition to enable us to play our part in balancing the energy trilemma in the changing environment we face,” says Orion Energy and Market Insights lead Ivan Luketina.
The energy trilemma is a concept that highlights the three main dimensions of the energy system that must be balanced – energy security, environmental sustainability, and energy equity and affordability.
“The insights in this report will help to inform our asset management and planning so that we can target investment where there is the most benefit for our customers and network,” says Ivan.
“We’ve had valuable input from key stakeholders through consultation, and that’s critical to ensuring we have a well-rounded view of where our region is heading. The scenarios will be under continuous review, so we encourage any interested parties to reach out if they wish to be involved.” says Ivan.
The Future Energy Scenarios are summarised as:
Business as usual – existing trends driven by largely external factors continue but there is little additional push towards decarbonisation in the New Zealand economy.
Progress – We make progress towards a zero-carbon energy system, and some consumers are empowered to participate in the energy system, but full transition is not achieved by 2050.
System transition - A transition to zero carbon energy system is achieved with significant technology change. Change is mostly centrally driven with little consumer participation or optimisation.
Consumer and place based transition - Transition to zero carbon is driven by consumer optimisation and efficient collaborative local planning.
Central - This scenario sets our current ‘best view’ of energy transition in our region to 2035 and extrapolating trends beyond that. We are planning for a world of rapid electrification to meet Government targets and the use of smart technology and changing consumer behaviour to better optimise electricity use.